A portfolio based on AGM Research recommendations has yielded more than a 200% return over the past 9 years, with lower volatility than the US equity market.
Applied Global Macro Research is an independent macroeconomic research provider and was founded in 1989 by Jason Benderly, formerly the Goldman Sachs Co-Director of U.S. Economics. The partners of the firm now include Carsten Valgreen, who was previously the Chief Economist of Copenhagen-based Danske Bank, Niels-Henrik Bjorn, who served as the European Economist at Danske Bank, and Mary Allyn, former Chief Operating Officer of Merrill Lynch Private Banking and Investment Group.
The AGMR Domestic Demand Leading Indicators (AGMRLI) are based on detailed work on the drivers of US and Euro Area domestic cycles in consumer spending, residential and business investment. This work has helped identify and quantify the triggers of spending growth in the US and Euro Area economies. The AGMRLI’s combine these triggers to an aggregate indicator, which leads growth in final domestic private sales by an average of 3-4 quarters.
The AGMRLI is available from 1957 for the US and 1966 for the Euro Area on a quarterly basis. By construction they are 4-quarter growth indicators. As opposed to other leading indicators, the AGMRLI’s contain no financial market prices and are less manufacturing centric. AGMR updates these series on a quarterly basis as new information becomes available, and also extends the indicators with scenario analysis, available only for clients.