US Macro 2019

AGMR US LI: Continuing to Signal Moderate/Strong Domestic Private Demand Growth in 2020 

US Recession Risk: 2020 is low, 2021?

US Summary: Recent Data Slightly More Favorable

US Recession Framework Overview

US Summary: Goldilocks Again, Except for Profits

Does a Stronger Philadelphia Fed Survey Imply a Rising ISM?

US Recessions: Tracking Hard Data in Real Time

US Recessions: Near-Term Warning Indicators

US Employment Growth: The Next Shoe to Drop?

US Summary: Stable Growth Despite Weakening ISM