What we do

We are an independent macro economic research firm known for being highly quantitative and for uncovering unique relationships. We look for ways to make macro economics systematically useful for financial decisions rather than trying to cover all issues and answer all questions. We try to marry a thorough understanding of the data with creative ways to relate the pieces of the macro economy together and then find which, if any asset prices can be tied in.

Our US and Euro Area macro research covers all the usual sectors of the economy as well as the major issues (inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, the labor markets, etc.). For the US, we have developed specific models on several industries and sectors, mostly the major durable goods (residential housing, motor vehicles, and business investment). In addition, for the US and Euro area we have what we think are the most useful frameworks for assessing the labor markets & productivity, corporate profits & earnings, credit & debt.

Our Global Financial Market research and analysis is all quantitatively based and relies on the details of our macro framework. Our Global Manufacturing Framework has proven to be extremely useful for the financial markets. Additionally, we have specific expertise on the profit cycle and its influence on the equity and credit markets. This work has created a series of investment recommendations ranging from broad asset allocation to sector recommendations, and G9 currencies. We publish a monthly Short Term Tactical Indicator report using our US Equity/Treasury Market frameworks to provide timely recommendations on tactical asset allocation. 

Emerging Markets research is available through our strategic partnership with Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group. Emerging Advisors provides consulting services on emerging economies and markets in China, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. Product offerings include daily thematic research, regular data and chartbook publications.

In addition to written reports, our service includes phone or email inquiries, conference calls and on site meetings.

AGMR Leading Indicator

The AGMR Domestic Demand Leading Indicators (AGMRLI) are based on detailed work on the drivers of US and Euro Area domestic cycles in consumer spending, residential and business investment. This work has helped identify and quantify the triggers of spending growth in the US and Euro Area economies. The AGMRLI’s combine these triggers to an aggregate indicator, which leads growth in final domestic private sales by an average of 3-4 quarters. The AGMRLI is available from 1957 for the US and 1966 for the Euro Area on a quarterly basis. By construction they are 4-quarter growth indicators. As opposed to other leading indicators, the AGMRLI’s contain no financial market prices and are less manufacturing centric. AGMR updates these series on a quarterly basis as new information becomes available, and also extends the indicators with scenario analysis, available only for clients.

Our Clients

Our clients are hedge funds, asset management institutions and other corporations who value highly quantitative and detailed macroeconomic analysis to help them make better decisions. In addition to our written work we provide our clients with email inquiries, conference calls and on site visits.